There are few thrills in life equal to hitting a big trifecta at the horse races, but winning money at the track is no easy task. Horse races are not easy to handicap and everybody would like to know how to win trifectas.
The first thing you should do is to know how many combinations there are in each race based on the number of horses in the race. For instance, in a typical 8 horse race there are 336 possible combinations that can make the trip. If you play dollar tries that means that each combination you play will cost $1.
So to box all 8 horses would cost $336. Obviously, unless you are sure some big longshot are going to hit the trifecta, that is too much to spend. The average tri doesn’t pay anywhere near that.
So it is very important to find a race where you can isolate at least one horse that you are fairly certain will win. The statistics for favorites hold pretty steady at most tracks. The favorite wins about 30% or roughly one third of the time. It finishes in the exacts about half the time, or 50%. Favorites manage to hit the board (win, place, or show) about 65%-70% of the time.
Therefore, finding a legitimate favorite is one way to cut the price of playing a good bet down to size. For instance, to wheel a horse on top over all the other runners in an 8 horse field costs $42 (for a one dollar tri wheel). In a seven horse field the bet is $30 to wheel one horse on top. That is a big savings.
Let’s continue with that line of thought. Let’s say there is a nine race card. Typically, the favorite will win 3 of those races on average. Now if you can eliminate two races where you think the favorite is a false favorite because there is something that makes you think it can be beaten, then that means, if you’re right, that you now have narrowed it down to the favorite winning 3 out of 7 races. That is 42% winners.
Furthermore, if you only play races with 7 horses or less, you can play all seven races for a total cost of no more than $210. If you do indeed hit three tries, they will have to average at least $70 to make up the cost of your bets, the original investment of $210. Does that sound reasonable? With a lot of practice and hard work it is possible to be able to spot false favorites and win trifectas and make money at the track.
One of the best ways to know if a favorite is a false favorite is with a method of analyzing the tote board like the one in True Handicapping. Spotting insider money and following trainer moves with a method like
True Handicapping is one way to spot real live favorites or even horses that are not favorites but are well meant in a race. These horses are the best bet to wheel in a trifecta especially in a field of 7 or 8 horses. The tries pay reasonably well and you bet is manageable.
The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to what’s a Willie and get the truth.